Mr Rajesh Rokde, Vice-chairman, All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council, on what to expect in gold sales during Diwali “Gold prices may rise to Rs 80,000/10 gms by Diwali. Gold is emerging as safest haven during the ongoing geopolitical turmoil and global economic uncertainty. Gold price is heading towards $2900/oz as projected by several global economists. We saw strong buying when the Indian government cut import duty. Indian consumers have been more attractive towards gold due to continuous high returns seen compared to other asset classes. The strengthening of US dollar is unlikely to have any impact on gold’s demand in india.”
Mr Saiyam Mehra, Chairman of All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council, on what to expect in Diwali for gold market- “Normally, gold demand rises in north India during Diwali festival. However, the yellow metal demand is down by 15-50% in the october 1st two week this year because of sudden spurt in prices to record high level. Between March and September, India imported 522 tonnes of gold this year. During January – September, India’s gold import stood at 660 tonnes as against 448 tonnes in the same period last year. Clearly, India imported 20-25% more gold this year. As a knee jerk reaction, customers hold their purchases due to sudden price increase.
We estimate 22 tonnes of gold will be sold during Dhanteras as demand for all types of jewellery is set to emerge. Gold prices may see another Rs 1000/10 gms rise from the current level, translating $30 increase to $2750/oz by Diwali. We see $50-60/oz correction by mid-November as by then US Presidential election will be over and shadow will be clear over US Fed’s 25 bps interest rate cut, and geopolitical conflicts.”
